The Future of Solar Part 1: DSC & Low Cost

A relative newcomer, DSC looks to many like a complete replacement for silicon

 

Technology Comparison: Silicon Solar Cells vs Dye-sensitized Solar Cells (DSC)


In my previous article I outlined a bit of the history of solar and how DSC fits into this timeline. It is attracting a lot of attention, and for good reason. Let's take a look at a number of reasons why many scientists worldwide believe this is the future of solar.


Silicon Solar
DSC
Cost           
Expensive
Inexpensive
Production
Has a complicated and energy intensive production process
Very simple to produce using little energy
Materials
Needs large amounts of very pure silicon
Needs only trace amounts of rare materials
Application
Rigid structure and opacity limits applications
Flexible structure and transparency makes them widely applicable (covering buildings, tinting windows, etc)
Lifetime         
40+ years
1-2 years
Theoretical efficiency
23%
39%
Indoor light efficiency
14%*
12%     
Direct sunlight
15%                        
11%



Chart Notes
-Theoretical efficiency is how high the efficiency COULD get in the distant future
-Indoor light efficiency is how well the cell absorbs light from sources other than the sun, like fluorescent and incandescent bulbs
*Silicon solar has decent indoor efficiency, but a low minimum threshold: In low light conditions absorption will often drop from 14% to 0%

DSC: A few snags
-Currently have a lower efficiency than silicon (~11% vs ~15%)
-Can be flexible, but these are currently marginally more expensive and less efficient (around 9%)
-Lifetime is limited (1-2 years indoors, a few months outdoors)


Dye-sensitized solar cells are just emerging from infancy, but
cheap and clean production, along with transparency and
flexibility, are attracting attention and MONEY

DSC: The Breakdown

So you can see that this technology, while promising, is still in the works. Even with silicon’s long hiatus in the 80’s and 90’s, DSC is not nearly as mature as a technology. The benefits are great however, and low cost, clean production, and nearly unlimited application are the points to keep track of. The first of these is important because DSC has great potential to become the first renewable technology that can truly reach grid parity (where people pay as much for energy as it costs to produce, aka no government subsidies needed) because of this low cost.

Low Cost
The low cost of DSC and its environmental cleanliness go hand in hand. Silicon extraction is not cheap and purification to the level necessary to make solar cells uses an enormous amount of energy, costing money and creating pollution before it ever leaves the factory.

If you look carefully at 2008 you can see the drop Chinese
price dumping caused
The cost of decent silicon panels has decreased exorbitantly in the past few years and is now at about $0.70 per watt. This is partially because of increasing scale of production, but really mostly because of cheap heavily-subsidized solar panels flooding the market from China. [1] With tariffs from the US already in place and the EU finally initiating its plan to investigate price-dumping by Chinese panel manufacturers, the price will probably return to its natural price of about $3/w in the next couple of years, finally reflecting its production costs.
 



DSC cost about $6/w right now. This may seem expensive, but this is because DSC is pre-industrialized, meaning they are still made by hand (see the $76.67/w price of silicon solar in 1977 for a reasonable comparison).



Steps to Cut Costs
Three steps will follow solving the electrolyte leakage problem discussed farther down:

1.    Industrialization via a simple automated process will immediately drop the cost down to ~$0.30/w (1/10 the cost of silicon).

2.    Once the materials used in production are also streamlined, the cost could drop down to ~$0.25/w (1/12 the cost of silicon).

3.    The final step in cost cutting would be to make the entire product printable, which is nearly possible now with the flexible versions, bringing the cost down to ~$0.15/w (1/20 the cost of silicon).

 
Keep in mind that many applications of DSC don't need fancy
installation (about $4.50/w [2]), making the price for pasting them on windows and
tacking them onto phones incredibly low


These figures are estimates of course, but even being off by a factor of 2 (unlikely according to engineers working with DSC) would still make these significantly cheaper than silicon cells, and even be able to compete with fossil fuels like coal. The importance of this cannot be overstated.

The energy you use to make silicon pure enough to be used in solar panels explains most of the difference in price, but material cost come into play as well. Silicon cells, by their very nature as silicon-based, have high material costs. DSC also use a number of relatively expensive materials in construction, such as platinum and titanium, but these are in very low quantity. To further drop the cost of DSC, researchers are working on finding replacements for both of these with varying degrees of success. Through basic knowledge of the period table and a bit of trial and error, cheap equivalently effective replacements have already been found to act as a catalyst in the cell instead of platinum, and scientists expect that even more effective replacements will be found as time goes on.
 




Stay tuned for part 2 to learn what would happen if the tallest building in the world, the Burj Khalifa, was covered in DSC and the reasons why this technology has been held back.


References
Much of the information used in this article was received during my internship from engineers and scientists at OPV Tech in Yingkou, China. Other than that, this article has no connection to the company and was not solicited.